15/10/2014 | 10:34:49PREDICTION USING DEMAND CARTON PACKAGING 2014 - 2015
Dự đoán nhu cầu sử dụng bao bì carton 2014 - 2015
Asia:
Demand in Asia still leading ahead of other regions with consumption accounting for 45% of corrugated paper in the world, of which nearly two-thirds in China, followed by Europe and North America each accounted areas nearly 20% of worldwide consumption, output is estimated at 125 million tons in 2013.
World demand in 2013 fell 3.6%, the economic crisis of the industrialized countries have experienced the most difficulty. Demand in Asia rose by 3%, mainly from China. Despite rising demand, the Chinese market is currently in a state of oversupply with capacity production since 2009, the growth rate ahead of demand. There will be a rebalancing in 2013, but new production capacity will continue to achieve significant extent in 2014 and 2015; Ken Waghorne estimated that in 2 years the new production capacity will exceed demand supply 7 million tons of corrugated paper.
In 2013, 45% in North America Kraft items supplied are imported from Asia, followed by Oceania with 20%, Russia 16% and the rest of Europe 13%. For China's self-sufficiency, Russia had a larger market share in negligible level. For Asia in general, predicted Ken Waghorne imports will decrease slightly. On recycled corrugated paper, Asia will become a net exporter in 2012 Asian import raw materials CCM but not as much as the manufacturers tend to import paper and paperboard not through reprocessing.
Eastern Europe:
In Eastern Europe, these products accounted for 62% recycling market. According to records, the first time since the market collapse in 1999 and 2012, with demand down 7.5%. Manufacturing output in late 2013 significantly increased, including a new plant investments Mondi in Poland. Net imports corrugated recycled paper peaked at 810,000 tons in 2010 and is now declining; according to RISI company providing information leading to the forest products industry globally, imports only 410,000 tons in 2015.
Eastern Europe also are exporters of pulp produced from raw materials as corrugated products, with around a half million tons a year. The export may increase if the economic growth in Europe has improved.
Western Europe
Imports of products recycle corrugated means to deal with excess capacity.
Approximately three-quarters of the Western European market is dominated by the amount of recycled board. Demand, after two years of decline, down 4% in 2011 and 2009 is 10%, it is expected that demand will return to better levels in 2013 with an increase of 4%. Even when combined with 2014, any expansion of output will still not compensate for the reduced amount lost during the economic crisis. The manufacturers have to reduce a lot of power in 2012, but the new factory is supplying to the market in 2014 and 2015.
Like most other types of industrial paper, although the paper used for packaging or not, the size of the excess capacity has led Western European producers to try and promote their exports . In this work they have benefited from the booming economies of the former Eastern Bloc, as well as Africa and the Middle East. In terms of materials recycled corrugated paper, between 2003 and 2010 the annual exports to Eastern Europe has increased from 350,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. Exports to Africa and the Middle East has increased from 150,000 tons to 750,000 tons in 2008, however, exports of raw materials to Asia and Oceania decline to between 2002 and 2007, before showing growth slightly in 2012 and 2013, last year, they did produce about 180,000 tons.
Export prospects in 2013 and 2014 is bleak. After a peak in 2009 at 2.3 million tonnes, exports are expected to fall to only 1.5 million tons, accounting for only 9% of production in Europe. In Africa and the Middle East, new production capacity to meet rising demand in the country and this will further restrict the exports. new production capacity in Oceania, exports also turned to the Asian market.
Regarding the trade balance deficit kraft face and imports are more stable. Between 2003 and 2011, accounting for 26% to 30% of demand in Western Europe. In 2013, due to lower prices and reduced demand across the board as markets reduced the attractiveness of the non-European exports and imports dropped below 1 million ton mark. According to RISI will continue to decline in 2014 as a result of poor demand and prices are going down because of overproduction but again needs to be increased in 2014 In 2013 , the two regions with the leading providers of North American and Eastern European countries, imports about 500,000 tonnes for each region.
For manufacturers, the level of excess capacity and declining exports leading to utilization rates (machinery) worse. For product recycling, reached 83% in 2012, and 75% for kraft paper surface. These rates are now back to a sustainable level of production, the proportion of about 92% and 87%. However, this rate is still lower than the long-term level of their production and are hampering the production of paper profits as before.
United States:
In the United States, demand slightly higher in 2012 than in Europe, but still lower than 2010 Ken Waghorne hope 2013 will demand a substantial increase in quantity and quality, with the expansion of demand demand up 6% reflecting the rapid recovery in the manufacturing sector and construction. American manufacturers also benefited from strong demand in South America.
In 2012, the American manufacturer has exported 1.8 million tons of kraft paper items to Canada and South America. The export to Asia and Europe remained stable since 2009 with a production of about 600,000 tons the year, except for the sudden rapid decline in early 2012 exports to Africa and the Middle East has increased faster growth and the end of 2013 had reached 1 million tons. In South America, RISI 2 predictions for 2014 and 2015 will increase demand close to 1.4 million tons and net exports will reach 2.4 million tons in 2015, production capacity in the United States did not increase enough rapidly to meet the growing demand.
Packaging Association VN - TL Combs Pulp and Paper translation